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NY Fed: Consumers expect inflation to remain steady

The survey sheds light on how consumers feel about the economy at a time when government reports have been postponed or canceled due to the shutdown.

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Where people think the economy might be headed can influence how they spend.
Where people think the economy might be headed can influence how they spend.
Ronaldo Bolaños/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

Consumers are feeling worse about their current and future financial situations. That’s one of the headline findings from the latest Survey of Consumer Expectations out Monday from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Consumers have a greater awareness of what’s going on in the economy than they get credit for, according to NerdWallet economist Elizabeth Renter.

“Most of us shop for groceries, most of us buy gasoline, and, in that way, we can be in tune with what inflation is doing, even if we're not watching the numbers that come from the BLS,” she said.

And with government reports delayed or canceled due to the shutdown, consumer expectations are especially useful, per Justin Wolfers, a professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan.

“So, in the absence of that hard data, looking instead to how people are feeling becomes all the more important,” he said.

And how people feel can actually impact the economy, Wolfers said. “If I'm worried about losing my job next year, I might pull back a little bit, tighten the purse strings.”

That could affect businesses, which could affect hiring — you get the idea. When Vicki Bogan at Duke looked at the latest survey from the NY Fed, she noted somewhat mixed findings: “You could say employment expectations improved slightly.”

But the survey did show that people think medical costs will increase, Wolfers said. “Medical costs are one of the leading causes of bankruptcy for households in general.”

Another key takeaway: Consumers told the NY Fed that they expect the inflation rate to remain steady over the next year.

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