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Food prices are up, but the cost of Thanksgiving might not be

Different reports give varying costs of a Thanksgiving dinner, with substitutions, downsizing, and store deals helping to keep prices down.

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Some grocery stores are willing to take a hit on turkey prices just to get shoppers in the door.
Some grocery stores are willing to take a hit on turkey prices just to get shoppers in the door.
Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Hopefully, at this point, you’ve finished up your grocery shopping for the Thanksgiving holiday, but did you spend more or less than last year?

It all depends on what you prepare, really. There have been dueling narratives as to whether the cost of a Thanksgiving meal is up or down this year.

“This year, we see that Thanksgiving dinner is going to be less expensive,” said Faith Parum, an economist at the American Farm Bureau.

“Our numbers show that it's going to be pretty close to the same or a little bit up,” said Justin Cook, a U.S. consumer research leader at Deloitte.

“We find that the typical Thanksgiving meal will run people about 10% more this year,” said Elizabeth Pancotti, managing director of policy and advocacy the economic thinktank Groundwork Collaborative.

Here’s the thing: Food prices overall are up. “For vegetables, specifically, our veggie tray was up more than 61% and sweet potatoes were up 37%,” the American Farm Bureau’s Parum said.

So, some Thanksgiving baskets replace fresh vegetables with frozen, drop the dessert, and use more generic brands. And some stores are willing to take a hit on the turkey, said Pancotti at Groundwork Collaborative.

“They can put those prices in the paper or in online advertisements to get you in the door, and then they know that you will buy the pumpkin pie filling, and the green beans, and the stuffing,” she said.

Regardless, family budgets are tight this holiday season.

So, “they may eat a less fancy meal,” said Justin Cook at Deloitte. “Or some families are actually going to invite fewer guests, kind of downsizing the meal itself as a way to save money.”

And, Cook said, if you’re going to be a guest, it's more important than ever to contribute to the cause, adding that the average guest will spend about $47 to add to the spread.

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