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While some retailers struggle, discount stores like T.J. Maxx are beating expectations

TJX, the parent company of T.J. Maxx, Marshalls and HomeGoods, reported strong third quarter earnings and raised its profit forecast for months ahead.

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“I would say that there's very few retailers who are performing at the level that TJX is performing at,” said analyst Janet Kloppenburg of JJK Research.
“I would say that there's very few retailers who are performing at the level that TJX is performing at,” said analyst Janet Kloppenburg of JJK Research.
Kevin Carter/Getty Images

Retail earnings on Wednesday told two stories about the state of retail. The first, from Target: The big retailer reported a third quarter decline in traffic and sales and cut its outlook for the year.

The second, from TJX, owner of T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, and HomeGoods; so called “off-price” stores. The company actually beat expectations and raised its profit forecast this morning. 

The off-price retailers are really strong right now, said analyst Janet Kloppenburg of JJK Research.

“I would say that there's very few retailers who are performing at the level that TJX is performing at,” Kloppenburg said.

That success starts with the business model, said Nicole DeHoratius at Columbia Business School. 

“A lot of times they're buying excess inventory from other retailers or other brands,” DeHoratius said.

She said the challenges facing retail lately, including tariffs, benefit the TJX model.

“The more challenge that the traditional retailer has in ordering goods, in forecasting inventory, in forecasting their own demand, the better off the TJX companies are because there's going to be supply and demand mismatches,” said DeHoratius.

That means excess inventory to buy and sell. 

“They're providing high quality products at a less than normal retail price,” said Peter Zaleski, an economist at Villanova University.

He said that’s why these stores consistently get a lot of traffic.

“It's not a very highly cyclical company. So, in a boom, they may not see sales spike but in a recession, they may actually pick up customers,” Zaleski said.

The off-pricing is especially attractive now, said Stephanie Cegielski of ICSC, a trade association for the marketplaces industry.

“Consumers are getting hit at the grocery store, and so they're trying to find ways to still get those things that they need and clothes for themselves and for their children, but doing so at a lower price point,” Cegielski said.

And even though they are getting deals at the big box retailers, too, she says, consumers also enjoy the hunt for that perfect shirt that might not be at their local T.J. Maxx next time.

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