TJ Maxx is up, Target is down. What does that tell us about consumers sentiment?
Tariffs are part of the story, of course. But not all of it.

A tale of two retailers: On the “maybe not the best of times, but business is pretty good” side, TJX, the parent company of discount retailers TJ Maxx and Marshalls and HomeGoods, reported that same-store sales rose 4% in the last quarter — and raised its earnings outlook for the remainder of the year.
On the "not quite the worst of times but ... ugh" side? Target. It told investors that same-store sales declined about 2% year over year. That's one of the reasons why the Minneapolis-based retailer announced a new CEO.
So what do those diverging corporate fortunes tell us about the state of the American consumer right now?
JoAnne Feeney, a portfolio manager at Advisors Capital, was on the hunt for a stock pot last week. After striking out at a kitchen supply store, she headed to TJ Maxx and found a pretty nice European brand with good online reviews.
“The price was extremely attractive, I think I got this very large stock pot for somewhere around $30,” she said. “Like I had won the lottery a little bit.”
Feeney said that “I won the lotto” feeling is crucial for TJ Maxx. A slowing labor market and sticky inflation mean both higher and lower income consumers are already in value-hunting mode.
Add that dose of dopamine you get after sifting through rows and rows of merch before finding your discount diamond in the rough, and TJ Maxx is gaining market share.
“So that bargain hunting, treasure hunting aspect, has continued to draw in a consumer who’s been faced with a tighter and tighter budget over time because of these higher prices,” she said.
Meanwhile, shopping at Target doesn’t seem to be generating as much delight — or revenue — as it used to. Sales are pretty much flat over the past three years.
Arun Sundaram at the investment research firm CFRA said while Target is still selling lots of groceries and other smaller-ticket items, shoppers are looking elsewhere for bigger purchases.
“Electronics, home goods, furniture, things like that. And those are the categories where Target’s really struggled over the last few years,” he said.
Since Target imports a lot of its own products and carries brands that do, tariffs and the vagaries of American trade policy have been a major headache.
Lorraine Hutchinson, a Bank of America retail analyst, said for the TJ Maxx’s of the world — which basically buy the stuff other retailers can’t sell — tariffs aren’t that big a worry.
“I think it is a bit more immune because they're negotiating their prices after the products been made, so they have a bit of a leg up on that,” she said.
And while Target has lost some customers over its support and then withdrawal from DEI initiatives, TJ Maxx has mostly avoided political controversy.


