On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis was supposed to release its initial estimate of GDP in the third quarter of this year … except … ya know … the shutdown.

Fear not, though. We will not leave you in the dark about the topline indicator of this country’s economic activity. Turns out, there are other estimators of GDP out there.

When I called up Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, he was more than happy to engage in some educated speculation.

“I love the premise for this interview. We don't have an economic release, we don't really know what's going on, but let's talk about it anyway,” he said.

There’s always some uncertainty about the state of the economy, said Adams. But it's still useful to guess what GDP might be. Because “over time, real GDP per person in the country is a great predictor of overall standards of living. It's also a really good measure of the business cycle.”

So, some Federal Reserve branches model GDP. The Atlanta Fed estimates the economy grew at a healthy annual rate of 3.9% last quarter; New York has a more modest 2.4%. And the St. Louis Fed: just 0.6%.

“I will caution, though: I wouldn’t put much stock in any of these numbers at the moment, because they’re based on data and we don’t have any data,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.

At least, not the kind that typically feeds these models. But the estimates all agree that growth last quarter was positive.

“I'll take it,” Zandi said. “We're not in recession, but we're not going anywhere very quickly.”

Zandi pointed to two drivers for the growth. One is business investment. “A lot of that’s around artificial intelligence and expanding out that infrastructure.”

The other is consumer spending, especially by wealthier households on things like cars.

“That got a little juice because of the expiration of tax subsidies for electric vehicles,” Zandi said.

Looking ahead, though, “we are less confident that consumers will keep up the same pace in the final quarter of the year,” said Tuan Nguyen, an economist with RSM.

With a weakening job market and continued inflation, he added that this quarter’s GDP might not be so strong.