The Conference Board’s Measure of CEO Confidence shows corporate America is feeling cautious. The reading fell in the fourth quarter, which puts more executives feeling negative about the economy than positive.

CEO confidence doesn’t necessarily reflect the economy, or the lives of regular people living in it. But CEOs do have insight and influence. Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, a professor of leadership at Yale, said that makes measuring their feelings important.

“While it’s perceptual, it’s perceptual by the actual decisionmakers and it’s in the here and now. It’s immediate,” Sonnenfeld said.

The current CEO perception is that the economy is on pause. Dragging inflation, aka stagflation, is a top concern. So is an economic slowdown, though notably the more extreme word (recession) came up very little in The Conference Board’s survey. Tariff talks have ramped up again. And President Trump has been commenting on the performance of specific CEOs.

“There’s so much uncertainty there about whether or not you’re going to get shaken down to surrender a piece of your business or your costs of doing business with another country are going to skyrocket,” Sonnenfeld said.

On a positive note, it seems like leaders are getting used to the chaos. Stephanie Guichard, a senior economist at The Conference Board, said companies intend to start spending again. The way they plan to do it though, may not be such a boon to the American workforce.

“They are facing higher cost pressure, but as a result they want to invest more in AI and other new technologies,” Guichard said.

Tariffs have increased the push to save money with AI. The Conference Board’s survey doesn’t represent overall CEO sentiment, and all 130 people surveyed lead big, Fortune 500 companies. 

“Large corporations, those CEOs, have a much better sentiment and they’re much more optimistic compared to the CEOs of smaller firms,” said Olu Sonola, an economist at Fitch Ratings. 

It means the overall economic outlook among businesses is probably much more of a mixed bag.

“A resilient but fragile economy and that’s somewhat oxymoronic, but that’s where we are,” Sonola said.

One economic force could propel us forward; another could knock us down.