Tariffs push companies to rethink traditional forecasts
With all the tariff uncertainty, companies have been hesitant to predict exactly what’s ahead.

Delta Air Lines has reinstated its 2025 profit outlook after canceling it earlier this year amid tariff-related uncertainty. The new forecast, released Thursday, is more cautious than the one the company offered in January.
The move highlights a broader challenge across the stock market: how can companies make financial projections three, six or 12 months into the future when conditions are so unstable?
Each quarter, publicly traded companies report their earnings and often provide guidance about future performance. But they aren’t required to do so.
“It is totally up to the company,” said Michael Tang, associate professor of accounting at Florida International University. “There’s no legal requirement.”
Still, many companies choose to provide forecasts because it builds trust with investors.
“One of the most important reasons is to build a reputation for transparency,” Tang said.
Which investors reward with a higher stock price. The problem is that investors can also punish companies if they turn out to be wrong.
“There is probably no securities lawsuit that’s more common than claims that your forecasts were false or misleading in some way,” said Erik Gordon, a professor at the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business.
But it is hard to forecast anything accurately when so much is up in the air — tariffs being the big one. And yet, that’s when companies get the most questions from investors.
“Just when it’s riskiest to make a forecast, that’s when you’re under the most pressure to do it,” Gordon said.
Following the tariff announcement in April, several companies opted out of providing guidance altogether. That didn’t sit well with investors.
“Oh gosh, they don’t know what’s going on either,” said Sean Naughton, a senior vice president at RBC Wealth Management.
Even partial guidance can still be helpful.
“If they can provide us some details, that really helps us as investors,” Naughton said.
That’s what many companies have started doing — offering different tariff scenarios or giving a wider range of how things might go. Jill Hall is U.S. equity strategist at BofA Global Research, she said a lot of companies seem to be threading the needle and offering some kind of forecast, a middle ground approach.
“Given the uncertainty, it hasn’t been that dramatic,” Hall said.
Still, with second quarter earnings season underway, investors are likely to scrutinize every word.


