Lots of big economic data are coming our way Thursday, from inventories to the balance of trade and an update on GDP.  But looming over everything is tariffs. 

Two weeks from now is when the pause on tariffs is scheduled to end. It’s when the U.S. is supposed to get a bunch of new trade deals. 

Beth Pride, president of consulting firm BPE Global, is in the business of helping other businesses manage international trade. “We’re knee deep in tariffs,” she said.

Two weeks from now, the U.S. could make a bunch of trade deals. In other scenarios, super high tariffs could come roaring back, there could be a tariff pause extension, or we could get all of the above.

“I can’t predict anything because I would’ve never predicted what has already happened,” Pride said.

So she’s focused on bracing for all possibilities a business might face.

“What are we preparing? It’s information, so that they understand if they continue with their existing supply chain, what the financial impact is going to be,” she said.

In other words, managing uncertainty, not reducing it. 

So far, only one trade deal has been signed, and that’s been with the U.K.

“I would say it’s 80% aspirational and 20% substantive,” said Bill Reinsch, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The U.S. and U.K. both made some concessions on making it easier to trade things including steel, beef, and ethanol. But he said most if it is agreements to talk in the future about specific topics.

Reinsch said this is probably a preview of what to expect with all the other countries. There are active negotiations with major trade partners including Japan, Korea, Vietnam, Canada, Mexico, the EU, and China, he added.

“Expect agreements where there’s a lot of commitments, a lot of kicking the can, but also expect agreements where there are a couple substantive concessions which will allow the United States to declare victory,” he said.

As the world watches, there’s one spectator in particular that may affect the outcome.

“The stock market gets very antsy if the United States moves to put high tariffs on others, so I think that the president will try to be more selective in easing in the amount of tariffs that are imposed,” said Alan Wolff, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Wolf sees the 10% baseline tariffs sticking around for a while. 

In an emailed statement to Marketplace, a White House spokesperson said President Trump’s strategy of leveraging access to the American economy “is paying off, and the administration expects to announce more custom-made deals in short order.”