The ceasefire between Israel and Iran seems like it’s holding, and oil prices have come way down over the past couple of days. Brent Crude fell by nearly 10% on Monday, and it’s spent Tuesday hovering below $67 a barrel.

But the cost of moving that oil around has been moving in the opposite direction. From Singapore to New York, the folks who buy and sell oil are betting Iran will not close the strait of Hormuz, and oil prices show it.

“You’re pretty much right where you were the day before Israel attacked a couple weeks ago,” said Sameer Samana, head of global equities and real assets at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

The cost of moving that oil around? 

“We are now at $2.95 a barrel, which is a 118% increase,” said Matt Wright, a principal freight analyst at Kpler. 

One thing about shipping costs for oil tankers is that the price swings are kinda wild. They can move by 20% and that wouldn’t be news.

“There is typically much greater volatility in freight rates than there is in the underlying commodity price, whether it’s crude or refined products, or anything, that is very normal,” Wright said.

But 118% is not normal. One reason for the increase has to do with scheduling — like turning a ship, scheduling a ship is slow. Oil pickups are booked 15-20 days in advance.

So when the missiles started flying 11 days ago, some of those appointments were canceled. Now, shippers are trying to squeeze in extra trips to make up for that.

“So vessels are gonna have to come into the Mideast Gulf and pick up cargos with a shorter window than is normally done,” Wright said.

That means more demand for ships, which means higher prices for shipping. 

On top of that, insurance rates on these tankers went up and are still up.

“Certainly the risks are still elevated in the Persian Gulf,” said Tim Denoyer, vice president at ACT Research.

The risk to the global oil supply may have come down, but the risk to any individual ship in the Persian Gulf? Still there. It could get seized, could get hit — who knows.

“I think those risks are starting to decline, but it might take a little time for the market to reprice those risks,” Denoyer said.

Between insurance and demand, global trade intelligence firm Kpler estimates the cost of shipping oil is probably gonna come mostly down within a couple weeks, assuming the ceasefire holds.