Escalating conflict in Iran has pushed oil prices higher this summer and into high volatility as there are some fears over how oil coming through the Strait of Hormuz could be disrupted if Iran were to target the vital energy corridor. But cooler heads say after the dust settles, the premium on oil won’t last.

Long-time energy analyst Tom Kloza with Turner, Mason & Company has watched oil prices rise and fall during conflict before.

This round, he has a nickname for the Strait of Hormuz: “The Strait of Hyperbole, because people will invoke it as a reason why crude should go to $100. I think that without all of this nonsense in the Persian Gulf, we're looking at $50 more likely down the road.”

And Rabobank’s Joe DeLaura said that even if we see more escalation and price spikes in the short term, the oil will eventually flow and we’ll revert back to an oversupplied global oil market.

That’s partially because demand for gasoline is decreasing in China and flattening in the U.S.

“And there's quite a bit of production that basically is coming online in 2025, 2026,” in Guyana, Brazil and Kazakhstan, DeLaura said.

“On top of that, OPEC is bringing more supply into the market,” he said — adding that’s why prices are likely to crater if this conflict eases.