Hasbro, the maker of Nerf guns, Play-Doh, Transformers and other popular toys, reports quarterly results on Thursday. It and other companies are being forced to outline action plans amid uncertain trade policy.

As many as 80% of the toys we buy in the U.S. are manufactured in China.

Big players were shifting more production into countries like Vietnam and India even before the trade war, said independent toy industry analyst Chris Byrne.

“The challenge with that is capacity, infrastructure, availability of labor and the ability to do some of the more sophisticated manufacturing,” he said.

All of those are things that Chinese factories have been perfecting for decades.

The trade war will likely speed up the shift to those other countries, but not in time to save the industry’s busiest sales season.

“Planning for this holiday season is absolute chaos right now,” said James Zahn with the trade publication The Toy Book.

He added that American retailers have canceled orders, manufacturers have halted production in China, and shipments of finished toys aren’t leaving the country since steep tariffs went into effect.

“This is déjà vu to the pandemic in the worst way,” he said. “Every day, you are stopped that creates a several-day ripple in the supply chain.”

By Halloween, Zahn predicts we’ll start to see much higher prices and empty shelves in the toy aisle.