
A lot of things changed in January — but not consumers’ inflation forecasts
A lot of things changed in January — but not consumers’ inflation forecasts

Business owners, analysts and economists are all trying to make sense of the current shift in U.S. economic policy — we’ve heard a lot of them on “Marketplace.” But consumers are also trying to digest the changing policy landscape and how it will affect the job market, spending and even the price of eggs.
We got a glimpse of what American consumers are thinking with January’s Survey of Consumer Expectations by the New York Federal Reserve Bank, which includes consumer data taken throughout the month. Last month, consumers held on to their belief that inflation isn’t getting any better — or any worse.
“The consumers are dug in, so, you know, inflation expectations are now kind of maintaining around 3%. That’s a percent higher than the Fed’s target of 2%,” said Rice University’s Zach Bethune.
Consumers are expecting commodity prices to increase.
“A lot of these commodity prices are forecast to rise, like housing and energy prices. So that’s one thing that I think is a bit of an underlying concern in the report,” said Luke Pardue with the Aspen Economic Strategy Group.
In terms of what consumers expect from the labor market, Pardue said: “They’re comfortable in the positions they have. This sort of tight labor market has loosened a little bit.”
Everything is still very wait-and-see for Deni Koenhemsi, an economist with Morning Consult. “It takes time, I think, for consumers to really digest the news, especially when it comes to inflation,” she said.
Though there are early indications that for some consumers, confusion may be converting into pessimism. “We do see that downward momentum,” she said.
Koenhemsi said her recent data shows that when consumers think about the future, it’s starting to sour their mood about the economy.
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