Once the darling of the fast-casual restaurant space and now just another player in a crowded field, Panera Bread says it’s going to overhaul its business. Some changes include a menu refresh, and adding some new locations.

There's some backstory here. The chain realized last time it switched things up, the changes did not go over well.

It’s kind of hard to remember how much of a pioneer Panera was in the late ‘90s and early aughts. It defined fast-casual dining — metal silverware, counter-to-table service, big comfy booths next to a fireplace.

“They had a specific vibe to their restaurants,” said Robert Byrne, senior director of consumer research at Technomic. He said it wasn’t long before other restaurants copied them.

“So other people get to come along and tweak your recipe [for] success,” he said.

Panera’s recipe is a dining experience that echoes a full-service restaurant. Panda Express and Chipotle’s versions are more like elevated fast food.

That difference became a weakness for Panera when inflation kicked in. Suddenly people were not excited to pay more to dine next to a fireplace.

“Panera was transactional and not so transformational,” said Stephen Zagor, a restaurant consultant and assistant professor at Columbia Business School. 

Panera cut costs and fans complained about shrinking portions, digital kiosks and the disappearance of favorite menu items. High CEO turnover and lawsuits over its caffeinated beverages didn’t help.

Between 2023 and 2024, sales fell 5%, according to Technomic.

“Their business eroded. And the challenge is not becoming wallpaper,” Zagor said.

Because when consumers are watching their wallets, each dining occasion is precious. So their mentality is kind of all or nothing. They go grab a meal deal or a steak dinner.

Lilly Jan, food and beverage management lecturer at Cornell’s School of Hotel Administration, said those dining experiences provide different value. 

“Either it’s the volume of food or it’s the quality of food or it’s the experience,” she said.

The problem with Panera is it plays to the middle by design. That’s something inherent to fast casual restaurants in general, and why chains like Cava and Sweetgreen are also seeing customers pull back.  

“I don’t know of any one particular brand that’s, kind of, killing it, if you will. But the ones I find that have the strongest sense of self are doing better,” Jan said.

Like for Raising Canes, the focus is chicken, and for Jersey Mike’s, it’s subs. Panera got lost in a sea of soup, salad, pizza, bagels — and of course, those controversial energy drinks.