The government shutdown means the Bureau of Labor Statistics still hasn’t released a September jobs report. But there are other ways to get an understanding of what’s happening in the labor force, including talking to people who are in charge of hiring.

When asked to describe the job market in their eyes, different kinds of recruiters offer different kinds of answers, from “sluggishly recovering” to “very active” to flat out “confusing.”

The mix reflects a split in the job market that echoes the K-shaped economy, where higher earners are thriving while lower-income Americans are falling behind.

“The low end of the [job] market is hurting,” said Michael Distefano, CEO of Korn Ferry’s professional search and interim group. “But the high end of the market is pretty robust.”

There often is sustained demand for high earners, even in a sluggish economy.

“The higher up and the bigger the organization, the fewer people there are on the planet that can do those jobs,” he said.

But the rest of the job market relies on an expanding economy. And right now, the picture is mixed.

“Most of the jobs that we have seen at the mid-level and lower levels are replacement jobs,” said Distefano. “They are not growth-oriented.”

Companies have been holding back from investing and taking big risks because of interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty, and tariffs.

“And that just put a lot of organizations into some type of like, ‘OK, hold on a second,’” said Chris Allaire, CEO of Averity, a tech recruiting firm.

It means a lot of Allaire’s work right now is about finding talent who he might have jobs for when companies are ready to invest again. There are a lot of excellent candidates — workers who companies would normally start bidding wars over — on the sidelines.

“The quality of talent that’s available right now on the market has never been higher,” he said. “It is phenomenal.” 

Besides tech, government jobs are not doing so well with all the federal downsizing. Meanwhile, on the positive side, there’s health care. The Bureau of Labor Statistics expects 1.9 million job openings in the sector each year through 2034.

Then there are companies that cater to luxury tastes.

“I mean there’s no shortage of successful, wealthy people,” said Susan Levine, CEO of Career Group Companies, which has worked with brands like Prada and Waldorf Astoria hotels.

Inflation is affecting top earners less because price increases don’t hit them as hard. They’re still spending on cars, vacations, and clothes. 

“We’ve never been busier,” said Levine. “We are as busy today as we were coming out of COVID.”

Levine is very much an optimist. And as tough as it might be in different parts of the job market, Distefano is optimistic right now, too. 

“It feels as though brighter days are ahead. And each month, touch wood, seems to be getting a little more buoyant.”