Constellation Brands, purveyor of Modelo and Corona beers, releases quarterly results after the closing bell on Monday. That company cut its outlook for the year in September, citing tariff costs and lower demand from a key segment of its customers.

The thing is, beer makers could have bigger worries.

When consumer sentiment takes a hit — like we’ve seen recently — beer sales usually follow, according to analyst Nadine Sarwat, a research analyst with Bernstein Research. Constellation is feeling that faster than other brands.

“Modelo, which is their biggest brand, its consumer base is around 50% Hispanic,” Sarwat said, adding that those consumers skew lower income and could be pulling back more quickly.

“And the Trump administration’s immigration policy and growing fear of ICE raids” are keeping many undocumented people and their families from working, shopping, and going out and buying beer, she said.

Constellation imports Modelo and Corona, which also means it’s bearing the cost of a 50% tariff on aluminum cans.

The whole sector is facing another threat, however. “The percentage of Americans reporting they drink fell down to 54% in 2025,” said Lydia Saad with Gallup.

That’s the lowest percentage since the firm started polling Americans about their drinking habits 90 years ago. And with younger people abstaining at the highest rates, Saad added that the trend is likely to continue.