We very likely won’t be getting the September jobs report on time from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The data is scheduled to come out this Friday, but the government shutdown has halted all nonessential operations, incluing those at the BLS.

In the meantime, economists will make do with what’s available. The National Employment Report, out this morning from the payroll processing firm ADP, found that the labor market just keeps going downhill, with the private sector shedding 32,000 jobs in September. Most of those were at small and medium businesses. 

John Ibes runs a small landscaping firm in Minnesota. He’s got 5 employees right now, same as he’s had all season. But he has worries.

“The future projection to me is downhill,” said Ibes.

Ibes said it’s getting harder to drum up business.

“The customer base that we had before was wider and that's narrowing,” said Ibes.

He said his remaining customers tend to be the wealthier ones.

“They're less concerned about price, right? They're less price sensitive. However, it's a narrow patch,” Ibes said. And he’s not sure how long he can keep going without slashing his workforce.

Tuan Nguyen, an economist with RSM, said with prices rising and consumer sentiment falling, companies like the one Ibes runs are the canaries in the coal mine. 

“Small and medium sized businesses are often the ones that are under the most pressure in this situation,” Nguyen said.

He said they just don’t have much room to maneuver around changes in consumer behavior or tariffs. 

“Smaller firms have been and will continue to be far more likely to raise prices in response to tariffs. While larger firms can afford to absorb some of the cost,” Nguyen.

He said small firms might have no choice but to shed workers. Wednesday’s ADP numbers suggest that’s what’s happening. And even though large firms, with 500 or more employees, added jobs last month, “this is such a small proportion of total employment, it makes no difference to the overall trends,” said Tcherneva, a professor of economics at Bard College.

She said 90% of employers have fewer than 100 workers. And right now, they’re not eager to hire more.

“It’s another look at the weakening labor market,” Tcherneva said.

To track what happens next in that labor market, she said the ADP data is helpful. But it’s no match for the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“That is a far more comprehensive data source,” Tcherneva said.

For now, though, Tcherneva said she’ll take any data she can get.