The newest member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Stephen Miran, made his case for more — and larger — interest rate cuts in a speech on Monday at the Economic Club of New York.
Last week, the Fed lowered interest rates by a quarter percentage point, although Miran wanted a bigger, half-point cut.
Stephen Miran argues that President Donald Trump’s policies are going to push prices down, so the Fed doesn’t have to worry that lowering interest rates will spark inflation. He said, for example, with immigrants leaving the country, there will be more housing available and rents will fall.
“I believe forecasters have underappreciated the significant impact of immigration policy on rent inflation,” he said.
Miran added that deregulation will lower companies’ costs, and there are “unreasonable levels of concern" at the Fed about the inflationary effects of President Trump’s tariffs.
“The upshot,” said Miran, “is that monetary policy is well into restrictive territory. Leaving short-term interest rates roughly two percentage points too tight risks unnecessary layoffs and high unemployment.”
But Fitch Ratings economist Olu Sonola doesn’t buy Miran’s arguments. He said there’s still a lot of uncertainty around tariffs and the total number of immigrants leaving the country.
Sonola doesn’t think Miran will be able to convince other Fed officials to follow his lead.
“They have their own staff,” he said. “And their staff, they go out there, they talk to people, they talk to businesses. My sense is that carries a lot more weight.”
Sonola added that it doesn’t help that Miran is only supposed to be at the Fed temporarily through January.