Along with the PCE inflation data from earlier this morning, there was also information that personal income rose 0.4% last month. 

The biggest driver of that was an increase in compensation. It tends to be higher for people who switch jobs than people who stay in the same job.

But that seems to have shifted.

“The data is there that, in general, the best way for you to get a raise is to go to a new company,” said Andrew Stettner at The Century Foundation.

Or at least it was, for the last fifteen years. But, in the last few months, people who switch jobs haven’t been getting any more of a pay bump than people who stick with the same company.

“It's a pretty big reversal. It is for us, what we are calling the economics of uncertainty,” said Stettner.

Companies don’t know what’s happening in this economy. Are tariffs on, or are they off? Are they 15%, or 145%? 

“With uncertainty, you know, people can't really make business decisions and plans for the future, so people are kind of just hunkering down,” said Allison Shrivastava, at the Indeed Hiring Lab

That uncertainty has translated into a noticeable slowdown in the labor market, as both employers and workers take a more cautious approach.

“Hiring has really stagnated,” Shrivastava said. “There aren't as many jobs to switch to. And if you are job switching, it might be less of an upgrade.”

For the first time since 2010, data from the Atlanta Fed shows wage growth is the same for people who’ve switched jobs and people who’ve stayed in the same role. 

Taylor Bowley at Bank of America Institute said that’s more evidence that the labor market is cooling.

“I think a lot of this has to do with who has the power,” Bowley said. “And right now, that power really rests in the hands of employers.”

That’s not great news for workers. And Stettner said it’s not great for the economy, either. 

“You want people to leave jobs in a dynamic economy, you don't want people just sticking to their own job,” Stettner said.

He said that can hinder economic growth and innovation.