The president’s attacks on Lisa Cook and Fed Chair Jerome Powell are attacks on the Federal Reserve’s independence: Both have resisted the president’s demand that the central bank cut interest rates by more than three percentage points.
If the president gets what he wants, yields on U.S. government bonds would fall, which would make other country’s bonds more attractive.
In that case, if investors in Europe, for instance, decide to sell off U.S. Treasuries and buy European ones, “then they would be selling U.S. dollars, and buying, say, in this situation, euros, as a European investor,” said Chuck Tomes, director and associate portfolio manager at Manulife Investment Management.
And less demand for the dollar pushes down its value.
Another reason investors might sell U.S. dollars is that lower interest rates would probably cause inflation.
“You don’t want to hold a currency that’s going to be devalued by inflation,” said Sebastian Mallaby, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
President Donald Trump has argued in favor of a weaker dollar, which can make American exports more competitive overseas. But more inflation would eat away at those benefits, Mallaby said, because it would raise production costs here at home.
“Because what you gain on the value of the dollar going down, you lose in terms of lost competitiveness, because your prices are going up when you produce something in the U.S.,” he said.
As the president’s attacks on the Fed’s independence continue — along with his attacks on other American financial institutions — Mallaby said that the dollar’s decline could accelerate.