Home prices across the country rose by 1.9% over the year leading up to June, according to the latest reading of the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index. That is less than the rate of inflation over the same period.

Which means, home prices — while still rising — are not rising as fast as inflation. Which is new.

On the demand side of the housing price equation, the geography is shifting. 

“Certain markets that really were favored during the pandemic years, markets like Tampa and Phoenix, are starting to really pull back,” said Nick Godec with S&P Dow Jones Indices, which puts out the Case-Shiller report. 

Home prices in Tampa have seen the biggest drop, falling by nearly 2.5% year over year. Meanwhile, prices rose the most in New York City, where they’re up 7%, followed by Chicago at 6%.

“Return-to-office mandates, that could be partly what's at play with increased interest in more traditional industrial centers,” said Godec.

On the supply side, 66% of homebuilders are discounting to move inventory, according to their national trade association. 

“You look at the places where there have been a lot of building, Florida, Texas, the Carolinas, other parts in the south, you know, they've done a massive amount of growth in terms of new housing, apartments, a variety of different things, and demand is cooling there,” said Stephen Kates at Bankrate.

Meanwhile homeowners who were waiting for mortgage rates to come down before putting their homes up for sale are starting to accept reality. 

Inventory — new homes and existing homes on the market — is up by one third year-to-date, according to Realtor.com.

All of this adds up to some amount of opportunity for buyers, said Nancy Vanden Houten at Oxford Economics. 

“There's a little bit more room for home prices to weaken further,” she said. “Buyers have, you know, a bit more leverage than they've had in some time.”

But that’s if you can afford to buy at all. Because home prices are still up by about 30% compared to five years ago.