Job cut plans spiked in July, but is it just an anomaly?

Employers announced around 62,000 job cuts in July, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. That’s up 29% from June and it’s more than double the number of layoffs in July 2024. It doesn't sound like the slow and steady cooldown in the labor market that’s been predicted.

So what's going on, exactly?

Ron Hetrick, a labor economist at the employment data firm Lightcast, said it’s a difficult time to be in his field.

“It has never been more frustrating,” Hetrick said.

The reason is that the labor market has remained largely stagnant in recent months.

“We just... we flatlined,” he said.

Firms have been waiting and seeing about tariffs and interest rates and there hasn’t been much hiring or firing. Which is why Thursday’s report caught Tuan Nguyen’s eye. He’s an economist at RSM. 

“If you compare it to the hard data on layoffs from the government, which is much more stable, the spike in layoff announcements in July is quite a surprise,” said Nguyen.

It’s a surprise that Nguyen isn’t too worried about. Tech companies announced the most layoffs, firms like Intel and Microsoft. But some tech firms are also hiring.

“Companies are switching to hire more AI engineers to better position them ahead in the AI race,” said Nguyen.

Retailers have announced significant job cuts too, many citing tariffs. But overall, that’s not a problem they are super worried about.

“Layoffs aren't coming up as a metric that I'm really overtly concerned about as of now,” said Indeed’s Allison Shrivastava.

Instead, she’s keeping an on eye on the overall amount of movement in the labor market, or lack thereof. Not many people are leaving their current jobs for something better.

“It’s really important that we have that kind of churn,” Shrivastava said. “We need that kind of movement in the labor market for it to be really healthy.”

The lack of churn means people looking for work have a harder time finding it, and firms might not have the workers they need. Hetrick said he’s looking ahead to a fuller picture of the labor market.

“I am so, so dying for the employment report tomorrow,” said Hetrick.

Hetrick said the industry-by-industry breakdown offered by the Bureau of Labor Statistics should provide clues about how things like immigration policy are affecting the workforce.