It’s that odd time of day at Havana Central in Midtown Manhattan, the lull between lunch and happy hour. The restaurant’s still buzzing though, with Cuban music pumping through the speakers.

“I like making mojitos,” said Orlando Amaya, who’s shaking up some cocktails. “My favorite one is coconut. Oh my lord, just delicious.”

Amaya has been working full time here for three years. As a bartender, he earns the tipped minimum wage, which is $11 an hour in New York City. His income is usually close to $70,000. The majority of it, nearly $50,000, is from tips. He is excited about the no tax on tips law. Without it, his take-home pay is $40,000.

“So I expect to, like, see maybe $60,000 at least a year. That would be way better,” said Amaya.

Unfortunately, Amaya’s expectations do not line up with the reality of this law. And who could blame him? By name alone, No Tax on Tips and Overtime laws, which are parts of President Trump’s sweeping One Big Beautiful Bill Act, sound simple.

But tax law is wonky and in the weeds. And the details of these laws haven’t been fully released.

“The next step in this process is for the treasury department to start writing regulations,” said Andrew Lautz, director of tax policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center, adding that this sometimes takes years, but needs to be done in months, since the law is already in effect. It covers income starting from the beginning of 2025 through the end of 2028.

Here’s what tax policy experts do know: This is a federal tax break. That means Amaya will still pay Social Security and Medicare taxes, and likely state and local taxes, too.

The law also has limits. It doesn’t cover all of Amaya’s tips. As a single taxpayer, the deduction limit is $25,000, or $12,500 for those on overtime. This starts to phase out once a worker makes $150,000. 

And to make the calculation even more confusing:

“The value of the tax credit is actually based on what tax bracket you’re in,” said Lautz.

That means how much money you’ll see depends on how much you earn.

“So if you’re in the lowest tax bracket, a $100 deduction means that you’d have a $10 reduction in actual taxes paid,” explained Lautz. “If you’re in the top tax bracket, that same $100 deduction would mean a $37 reduction in taxes paid.”

Finally, how you make money matters. For instance, people who work multiple jobs won’t necessarily get the overtime deduction.

“If somebody works 50 hours a week at one job, they get overtime for those 10 extra hours. But for someone who has two jobs at 25 hours each, they get no overtime pay,” said Heidi Shierholz, president of the Economic Policy Institute.

If the law is renewed or becomes permanent — and with bi-partisan support there’s a chance it may — Shierholz worries it could shift workplace dynamics. Some workers may ask for more overtime, and employers might encourage it so they can hire fewer employees and spend less on benefits. Shierholz also says the law could further incentivize tipping over paying a guaranteed wage.

“So this is just not going to be the kind of game changer for working people that it’s been touted as,” she said.

It’s certainly not the game changer Amaya thought it would be. Remember, he thought he’d see $20,000 more a year because of the law.

We had Lautz do some back of the napkin math on his taxes. And he thinks the No Tax on Tips law means Amaya will take home about $3,500 more a year — or $67 a week.

“Hey, it’s better than nothing,” said Amaya.