It’s another big week for tariff news and economic data. Retail sales numbers, the producer price index, housing starts and building permits, and, Tuesday morning, inflation. The June consumer price index will be the latest glimpse into the effect of President Trump’s tariffs on Americans’ wallets.

It’s the big question on every economist’s mind: Will the CPI report show signs tariffs are starting to affect prices?

Kevin Jacques, a former financial economist at the Treasury Department under George W. Bush, said analysts have been watching for any rise in consumer prices for the last few months.

“U.S. firms have done a really good job so far of absorbing some of that,” he said.

Many companies stockpiled inventory to avoid raising prices for as long as they can.

But Jacques said there are things you can’t really stockpile, like food, and he’ll be looking to see whether the cost of imported fruits and vegetables is creeping up. 

Jed Kolko, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, will be looking more closely at the prices of core goods — things like cars, computers, dishwashers, and clothes.

“Physical goods, aside from food and energy, because that's where we would expect price effects from tariffs to show up most strongly,” he said.

Still, Alan Detmeister, an economist at UBS investment bank, said we might not see much increase in prices for another month — or maybe a couple.

“Really, by the September CPI that is released in October, if we haven't seen it yet at that point, that would be a pretty big surprise,” he said.

But, he said, if we do see a jump in the June numbers, take it with a grain of salt.

“You never want to pay too much attention to any one-month change in basically any of the macro data,” he said.

Unless all of it — CPI, PCE, private data — starts moving in the same direction all at once.