On Thursday, two economic indicators we haven’t looked at in a while will be updated with June’s figures: Applications to start new businesses and the number of those applications projected to actually become businesses within a year.

They’ll come at a time when the name of the game in this economy is uncertainty. Which is not typically a great backdrop for starting up a new business. And yet, by historical standards, Americans have been creating new businesses like crazy ever since the early days of the pandemic — itself a rather uncertain time, if you recall.

There are two ways this very uncertain economy might influence people who are thinking about starting a business right now.

“One might be that you feel a little bit more nervous about leaving a full time job, doing something new on your own as a full time thing,” said Sarah Kunst, managing director at Cleo Capital.

If enough people feel that way, we might see fewer of them making the jump to start up that coffee shop they’ve always dreamed of. 

The other way uncertainty might influence people, Kunst said, is to make them want to have a bit more cash coming in right now.

“So maybe those cakes that I make for all of my nieces and nephews for their birthdays, maybe that becomes an Instagram account, and you're selling the cakes, and it becomes a side hustle,” she said.

That version of entrepreneurship is a pretty well-worn path. But there’s another one that we don’t hear about as often: Necessity entrepreneurship.

Many entrepreneurs start small businesses out of necessity, said Suntae Kim, an assistant professor of management and organization at Johns Hopkins University.

“Not because they see a lot of opportunities there, but because it’s difficult for them to secure stable jobs,” he said.

That kind of business formation could persist, he said, even though investors are hesitant and borrowing costs are relatively high.

Plenty of businesses managed to plow through tough times when they were brand new. Chris Kesler, owner of Black Flannel Brewing and Distilling Company in Essex, Vermont, had contractors building out his operation in late 2019.

“Their plan was to finish by the end of March 2020 and then start brewing in April and open in May of 2020 and then, you know what happened then, right?” he said.

He had to throw more of his own money into the business, but still managed to open a few months late. 

“It took a while to find our feet, find our audience, but once we did, then the profitability came and we just had to be patient and persevere,” he said.

Kesler’s advice for would-be business owners: Be ready to adapt quickly if forces outside your control alter your plans.