How will low inflation complicate the Fed’s plans?

When the Labor Department released the Consumer Price Index numbers for August, Janet Yellen got a shock.

Everybody expected the CPI  to come in just shy of the Fed’s goal of 2 percent inflation. But the actual number was 1.7 percent. 

Inflation is just not being  cooperative.

“CPI is a little bit like the puppy that refuses to get housebroken and is spoiling the Fed’s carpet,” says Jonathan Lewis, who, yes, is in the midst of training a stubborn puppy,  but is also Chief Investment Officer at Samson Capital Advisors.  

He says today’s inflation numbers are a mess for the Fed – a warning flag. 

“The low inflation numbers are a symptom of weakness in the economy,” says Mark Gertler, who teaches economics at New York University. “The economy is still not as strong as we would like.”

That’s a problem for the Fed because it can’t raise interest rates when the economy is weak, and the Fed can’t keep rates near zero forever.  

But there is a bright side.

“The lower inflation is actually giving them quite a bit of breathing room,” says Gennadiy Goldberg, U.S. Strategist for TD Securities. “There’s very little pressure on the Fed to hike interest rates now.”

And everybody expects inflation to get up to where the Fed wants it, eventually.   

As asset manager and dog lover Jonathan Lewis puts it, puppies will get trained sooner or later. It just takes some longer than others.