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Scott Jagow: It’s been a tough few months for Wall Street bankers. But come on — before that, they were living it up. So the bonuses will still be pretty good this year. Probably. Ashley Milne-Tyte reports.

Ashley Milne-Tyte: Wall Street optimists are estimating bonuses could rise as much as 15 percent this year.

Eric Moscowitz is head of compensation consulting for Options Group. He thinks that’s unlikely.

Eric Moscowitz: I think you take those numbers with a grain of salt. The actual reality and what we’re hearing on the Street from a lot of people is that bonuses are down.

He isn’t the only skeptic. The New York State Comptroller’s Office has also concluded that Wall Street bonuses will shrink slightly this year.

But the news isn’t all bad. The big financial firms posted record profits during the first half of the year. That was down to stellar revenues in areas like equities and investment banking.

Eric Moscowitz of Options Group says it’s employees in those divisions who’ll receive the lion’s share of this year’s bonus pool.

Moscowitz: Those people need to be retained, because you still gotta put up even better numbers than this year next year.

And he says next year is definitely something Wall Street’s worried about.

In New York, I’m Ashley Milne-Tyte for Marketplace.