TEXT OF STORY

Scott Jagow: The company that makes beer cans gives its third quarter profit report today. Aluminum maker Alcoa always kicks off the earnings season. But this time, Wall Street might be paying extra close attention to what Alcoa has to say. More now from Alisa Roth.

Alisa Roth: The third quarter results will give us an idea of how badly the subprime mess is affecting the rest of the economy.

Some investors see Alcoa itself as an indicator of how the rest of the companies will do this season — and how the economy is doing overall.

Chuck Bradford is a metals analyst at Soleil Securities. He’s guessing Alcoa’s stock will be up by a little over 60 cents a share — exactly what it was a year ago.

But he says Alcoa’s role as bellwether is overrated. He says the U.S. only accounts for about 20 percent of the aluminum market.

Chuck Bradford: Very little aluminum in housing. Aerospace, which people talk about a lot, very small. And the automobile is another big mistake. Most of the aluminum in a car is from scrap.

He says the subprime collapse and a weak dollar have helped push commodities prices down; but demand from China is still high.

In New York, I’m Alisa Roth for Marketplace.