Let’s say two people are constantly giving you advice. One of them is extremely confident every time but usually turns out to be wrong. The other is much less confident-sounding but usually winds up being right. Who do you listen to? A new study says overwhelmingly, people choose confidence first.

From New Scientist:

Ever wondered why the pundits who failed to predict the current economic crisis are still being paid for their opinions? It’s a consequence of the way human psychology works in a free market, according to a study of how people’s self-confidence affects the way others respond to their advice.

The research, by Don Moore of Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, shows that we prefer advice from a confident source, even to the point that we are willing to forgive a poor track record. Moore argues that in competitive situations, this can drive those offering advice to increasingly exaggerate how sure they are.

I think I’ve seen that show on one of the cable channels. Or maybe it was a Treasury Department press conference. I can’t recall.