Home prices are falling in Texas. Here's why

New analysis by Redfin shows there were year-over-year price declines in all of Texas’ major housing markets.

That includes in Austin, parts of Dallas and Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio. Even though the market got off to a good start earlier this year, spring hasn’t exactly sprung for the state’s real estate market.

“There was this anticipation about… this spring market is going to be better,” said Yanling Mayer, a research economist with Texas A&M University’s Texas Real Estate Research Center. “But that changed so quickly.”

Mortgage rates went up. But, also, the U.S. also went to war. Bryan Glasshagel, who leads the Texas advisory practice for the real estate firm Zonda, said that has shifted the calculation for would-be home buyers.

“It was a hit to consumer confidence,” he said. “And buyers were becoming more cautious with spending money.”

Demand had already been dampened by lower domestic and international migration to Texas and uncertainty around the job market in the state’s biggest cities.

“Job growth is weak — I think, as we look at it, pretty anemic in all four markets,” Glasshagel said.

So buyers are cautious, even though there’s a decent amount of inventory out there.

Mayer said all of that is dragging down prices. In March, she said home prices across the state were down 1% year over year.

“Fundamentally, you know, supply is there. It's just whether the demand is able to support it, right?” Mayer said. “And if the demand is not able to support it, that means prices will come down even further.”

It may not be the robust spring selling season many were hoping for, but Mayer said patient buyers may be more likely to snag a discount.