Another day, another sector where private data can paint a picture in the absence of government: Housing.

The latest S&P Cotality Case-Shiller home price index tells us that growth in home prices is slowing. And Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the interest rate on a 30-year mortgage has fallen for the fourth consecutive week, to 6.17%

All of that should mean that home ownership is becoming more affordable. But it hasn’t done much to move prospective buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines. 

Around the country, in August, home prices rose just 1.5% on an annual basis, said Nick Godec at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

“Basically home prices are underperforming inflation so on a net basis, are declining in value,” he said.

Not great news for homeowners. But, Godec said, for homebuyers, “it's potentially more attractive than it has been because we're not seeing just the rapid increase of prices that we've seen in the past.”

But a lot of buyers are still staying on the sidelines.

The National Association of Realtors reports no change in pending home sales in September. And year over year, pending sales decreased a little less than 1%, said NAR senior economist Nadia Evangelou.

“What's interesting is that the market isn't picking up as we expected, but it's not struggling either,” she said.

Evangelou anticipates activity will increase next year. “And the primary reason is because of affordability. Affordability remains the main challenge,” she said.

Though affordability is slowly starting to improve, with moderate price growth and lower mortgage rates, said Redfin economist Chen Zhao. 

“But the economy is also shakier, so a lot of buyers are still sitting on the sidelines,” he said.

They’re worried about the job market, Zhao said, and timing.

“I think a lot of buyers are saying, ‘Hey, if rates are falling, they might fall more. And if home price growth is moderating, maybe we'll see home prices start to fall, you know, later this year or early next year. And I just want to wait. I don't want to be the one to, like, catch a falling knife, essentially,’” he said.

Zhao said it might just take more time for home prices and mortgage rates to fall significantly enough to motivate buyers to take the plunge.