Nowhere does beef quite like Texas — cattle are by far the state’s top agricultural commodity, and Texas prides itself on its barbecue, with thousands of restaurants peppering the state. Which is to say, the roughly 15% year-on-year increase in beef prices cuts both ways in the Lone Star State. Pitmasters are contending with high prices, while cattle producers are performing above their peers in the agricultural sector.

Brisket, ribs and sausage are just a few of the staples chef Ernest Servantes serves at his restaurant Burnt Bean Company in Seguin, Texas. But the menu has changed. 

“We no longer serve the famous Texas dinosaur beef ribs. We don’t do that anymore because of the prices,” Servantes said.

Brisket has to stay on the menu, because this is Texas. But these days it’s not profitable. 

“We tend to make more of our money off poultry and pork products, so whenever people say, ‘How many briskets do you go through?’ I cringe, because when I see my I see my weekly beef bill, I could buy a car,” Servantes said.

About 150 miles east of Servantes’ barbecue restaurant, Damion Turner raises a small herd of cattle outside of Houston. As a small-scale producer, he has to be really careful about costs. 

For example, after the pandemic, he struggled to pay for hay to feed his cows. 

“Round bales of hay were up to almost $200 a round bale, and usually then anywhere from 50-75 and so you can imagine paying double the price you had for one round bale,” Turner said.

Drought made the hay expensive and so selling his cows wasn’t profitable. But now, hay is cheaper and beef prices are way up.

“Now it's profitable, pretty much. And so, if you go sell the cow now you still have money left over after you, you know, buy feed and things like that,” Turner said.

Turner said he gets a 10-15% profit for each calf he sells. And those numbers are why economist David Anderson with Texas A&M said some ranchers are expanding their herds.

“High prices really encourage expanding production,” Anderson said.

Still a young heifer born this last spring won’t have her first calf until 2027. 

“That calf is not going to get to its final full-grown weight and head to a meat packer for about 20 months after that,” Anderson said.

So, while high prices will help boost the cattle supply eventually, it’s gonna take a while.