Las Vegas, Nevada, is arguably the discretionary spending capital of the country if not the entire world. This makes it a good barometer for understanding the state of the economy not just in the city or state, but the entire nation. And right now, “Neon Babylon” has lost some of its glow.

On a pleasant recent evening, a few dozen — but not hundreds — of people stopped to watch the dancing fountains in front of the Bellagio Casino. They appear as a metaphor: The rising and falling water jets could be a bar graph of the Las Vegas economy, which was way up coming out of the pandemic into last year. But for 2025, things have slowed.

There’s anecdotal evidence for this, starting with a Scottish couple watching the fountains, Jim and Janice. They love Las Vegas so much Jim even has a tattoo of the “Welcome to Las Vegas” sign tattooed down his calf. They, along with two friends, flew 11 hours from Scotland to visit. And it’s not the first time

“Oh no, maybe 10,” Janice said. She says it feels quieter this time, though, and “much more expensive.”

There are hard data to back up up the sense of quiet. We got that, from Jeremy Aguero of Applied Analysis, a research and consulting firm in Las Vegas.

“I live in a world of ones and zeros,” Aguero said. “For 30 years, we've been measuring what happens in the economy, and, you know, it's never fun when you start seeing the numbers start to slide.”

“Start” is a key word. It’s not off a cliff, but the direction is down: 7.8% fewer people came to Las Vegas in the first eight months of this year, 1.8 million fewer humans came through the big airport here. And the regional jobless rate?

“We're about 6% and edging upward,” Aguero said. “That's concerning.”

Concerning beyond Las Vegas if this is an early indicator that people are getting nervous about how they spend money that they’re not required to spend, given worries about further inflation and jobs.

At the actual Las Vegas Welcome sign (and not just the tattoo on Jim’s leg), you find folks are taking turns doing selfies. Word is the line used to go all the way back to the parking lot, but not today — it’s maybe 15 people. Carlos brings his family in from San Diego once a year, and he said rooms that used to be $129 per night are now $300.

“Five of us just ate for almost $300, where before it was like $150, all of us would eat,” he said.

And then his kid touched — but didn’t drink — water in the hotel room.

“We got charged $15 for a bottle of water because of the sensors on the hotel,” he said. “I mean, not everybody comes in with $100 billion in their bank account, but at the end of the day, people come here to enjoy Vegas.”

In the boom that followed the pandemic, many businesses in Las Vegas raised prices to take advantage of the mood to splurge. Then, after a social media backlash, prices are coming down. That said, the hotel we carefully shopped for tacked on a surprise extra $55-plus-tax “resort fee” at check-in.

Now, none of this surprises another visitor going for a selfie at the sign, Jermaine.

“It's Vegas. If you’re not coming out here to spend a little money, then you shouldn't be coming out here,” he said. “But at the same time, that's a little pricey.”

Local businesses also feel the pressures. Juanny Romero owns seven coffee shops called Mothership Coffee Roasters, which use beans sourced from women-owned suppliers.

“Our downtown shop, our sales are down,” Romero said. “It's been now, like, about four to six months of it being down 30%. But the rest of our stores are doing really well. But just that store specifically, because it's heavily tourist dependent.”

The economic moment has her caught between risk and opportunity. With the downturn, she’s being offered reduced rent on what could be a new Mothership location on the Las Vegas Strip itself. During the boom, no way she could afford that lease. Now, maybe she can, but what if the tourist slump gets worse?

“The question is, how long are we going to be in this position where — I don't have a crystal ball. What if it's a recession? I mean, it would literally upend the whole company,” she said.

All that said, the Las Vegas convention bookings have been holding their own this year, with bookings for next year looking OK so far. Those are driven not by household budgets, but by decisions by bigger businesses during this never-say-die stock market exuberance.