President Donald Trump is going to “do some farm stuff this week.” That’s what he told reporters as U.S. farmers struggle to market their crops, since China isn’t buying because of steep tariffs. Those same farmers are awaiting the relief plan Trump’s Department of Agriculture is expected to unveil this week — if the government shutdown doesn’t delay it, that is.
This follows billions paid out to farmers during the last trade war; the first Trump administration’s farm relief package paid out more than $20 billion dollars — mostly to soybean and other commodity crop farmers.
Some analyses found that the amount more than covered their trade war losses.
“The levels of funding were unprecedented at the time,” said Joe Glauber, who is with the International Food Policy Research Institute and also served as chief economist in the USDA from 2008 to 2014.
He said that short-term relief didn’t make up for the trade relations that were lost — maybe permanently — while U.S. ag exporters were sidelined and other countries stepped in.
“Brazil has increased production a lot since the 2018 to 2019 trade war,” Glauber said. “They are, at least for the time being, the major supplier of soybeans” to China, the world’s largest buyer.
In September, Purdue University surveyed U.S. farmers on whether they expected a bailout similar to what they saw six years ago.
“And 83% said ‘likely’ or ‘very likely,” said Michael Langemeier, who runs Purdue’s Ag Barometer survey.
Still, Langemier said farmers’ assessment of conditions in the agricultural economy and the potential impact of tariffs slipped.
“What about the long-run market share? Are we gonna be able to go back to where we were even a year or two ago after this is all said and done?” he said.
“You know, trade payments are great,” he added, but U.S. farmers would rather have a stable market for their crops.