Over the next few weeks, many universities will start their fall semesters. And they’ll do it with fewer international students. International enrollment is expected to plunge by 30% to 40%, partly because students are unable to get visas on time. It seems there’s a bit of a visa application backlog after some stop-and-start from the Trump administration.

One problem with declining enrollment of students from other countries? They contribute a whole lot to the U.S. economy when they’re here. When they’re not here, they don’t. 

Typically around this time of year, Samira Pardanani is swamped helping international students make final preparations to attend Shoreline Community College, north of Seattle, Washington.

“They can study anything, but business, computer science, technology, they’re very very popular majors,” she said — “I forgot, engineering!”

These students pay a pretty penny to go to Shoreline. More than twice the typical in-state tuition. 

In total, the U.S. government says international students contribute about $50 billion every year to the economy, in tuition, housing, food, and more.  

But this year, Shoreline is experiencing a 24% decline in international applicants. 

“We are getting a lot of questions. Students are anxious. Parents are anxious,” said Pardanani. “There are visa denials that they're not understanding … There's also, sometimes, we're hearing about lack of visa appointments.”

June, July and August are the peak times for students to get their visas issued in order to be here on time, said Fanta Aw, executive director at NAFSA: Association of International Educators.

The group has been tracking publicly-available visa data and its own enrollment data. It projects new international student enrollment will be down as much as 40%.

“Because they've had massive difficulties in getting visa interviews,” said Aw, “they're going to be unable to make it here for this fall.”

Aw said other Trump administration actions, such as revocations of previously issued student visas, have also had a chilling effect. Many students are looking elsewhere.

That’s a trend Travis Ulrich can attest to. His software company Terra Dotta helps universities and international students connect and he’s seen more students head to the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia  — among other places.

“We continue down this path, the worst case scenario here is that we, the United States loses its competitive edge in welcoming international students,” he said.

Which Ulrich said would mean losing an economic edge as well. After all, many of those international students — often in STEM fields — go on to take hard-to-fill jobs in the U.S. economy.