Part of this weekend's EU-U.S. trade deal was a promise that Europe would buy $750 billion in U.S. energy over the next three years. The deal led to a jump in share prices for some liquefied natural gas companies, although overall market reaction from the energy sector was muted.

Even though $750 billion is a big promise — it’s unclear how much the EU-U.S. energy relationship is really changing.

Europe’s promise to buy $250 billion dollars in U.S. energy every year for the next three years is more of a renewal of vows than a first date. The U.S. and EU got serious about energy after the invasion of Ukraine, said Matthew Zaragoza-Watkins at the University of California, Davis. 

“When sanctions were imposed on Russian imports of natural gas and coal, the U.S., as a swing or sort of high-cost supplier of bituminous coal, stepped up and started exporting a lot more bituminous coal to Europe, essentially filling a lot of the void that was left over,” said Zaragoza-Watkins. “The same is true in LNG.” 

So $250 billion a year, which more than doubles the size of existing U.S. energy exports to Europe.

“It's not feasible,” said Gregory Brew, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group.

Too much, too soon. But even if it’s exaggerated, Brew said, the announcement does solidify a growing energy relationship — especially around natural gas. 

“LNG exporters are confident this is a sign to them that they're going to continue to get access to this market, that it's not going to be disrupted by tariffs or other potential trade disputes,” said Brew.

U.S. liquefied natural gas export capacity is expected to roughly double in the next five years according to S&P Global Commodity Insights — in part driven by European demand. So, this commitment from Europe could help some of those pending projects get financing.

“It does signify maybe a more firm commitment for EU member nations to actually purchase longer term supply,” said Tom Seng at Texas Christian University. “They've really been more in the short-term marketplace.”

This also means employment opportunities down the road.

“From a job creation standpoint, you're still looking largely at Louisiana and Texas,” Seng said.

New positions to build and work at terminals along the Gulf Coast — where LNG export facilities are concentrated.