In addition to inflation data yesterday, there is a new look at how price increases are affecting consumers’ purchasing power — their real earnings. Accounting for inflation, average hourly earnings fell slightly in June, by a tenth of a percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

One month doesn’t make a trend, but there are dynamics in both the labor market — and inflation data — that could further eat into Americans’ wages. 

First — the labor market. It’s doing OK, on the whole. Unemployment’s around 4%. However, the job market isn’t growing like it was a couple years ago, said Skanda Amarnath, executive director of the research firm Employ America.

“The willingness to hire workers is slowing,” Amarnath said. “And the reason we're really not seeing negative job growth is primarily because employers have largely hung on to their existing workforce.”

Employees are more reluctant to quit their jobs to find better pay, especially in this kind of stagnant job market.

“It's oftentimes really hard to push for wage increases,” Amarnath said.

Then there’s inflation. Tariffs haven’t yet pushed up prices all that much — but the cost of some goods that are often imported, like appliances and toys, increased in June.

Jeff Strohl at Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce said we’ll probably see more of that going forward.

“People had inventory sitting in warehouses, and now, all of a sudden, the tariffs are catching up with the newest load of merchandise coming in,” Strohl said.

If those costs get passed on to consumers and the labor market continues to weaken, we’ll probably see more reports like this one.