It’s only mid-July, but for retailers — and some especially organized parents — the back-to-school shopping season is already underway. However, the outlook isn't promising. A new Deloitte survey projects that inflation-adjusted spending will decline this year.

Aside from the holiday gifting season, back-to-school is retailers’ biggest event of the year. And it’s shaping up to be a nail biter. Brian McCarthy who worked on the Deloitte survey said peoples’ economic expectations are waning.

“Dipping to the lowest level we’ve seen in, let’s say five years, even since the pandemic,” said McCarthy

More than 50% of people believe the economy will weaken over the next six months. More than 80% believe they’re in a worse financial position than they were last year. 

“The uncertainty surrounding pricing given tariffs is top of mind,” said Dana Telsey, CEO of Telsey Advisory Group. 

Especially as more retailers warn that price increases are coming sometime this summer or early fall. Telsey said in many cases, they already have.

“We do a weekly tracker of 80 items,” Telsey said. “We began to see this past week the beginnings of an uptick in price.”

Companies are trying to be transparent about tariffs said Diana Smith, who directs retail and e-commerce at Mintel. They’re coming up with brand messaging and adding tax line items at checkout.

“The we’re all in it together type of approach is the best way forward for consumers and retailers,” Smith said.

Because everyone is a bit tense about tariffs, especially after years of inflation.