After a one-month blip of higher confidence, consumers are more downbeat again
Tariffs, a new tax-and-spend bill, conflicts in the Middle East … It’s all just a lot.

How are consumers feeling about the economy these days? In short: not great.
The Conference Board’s latest consumer confidence index dropped again in June — part of a broader decline that has continued nearly every month this year, with May as the one exception.
According to this report, consumers are feeling more pessimistic — about current events, and for what lies ahead.
Some reasons behind the decline are likely familiar to anyone keeping up with the news: renewed tariffs, a new tax-and-spend bill, and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. It’s all a lot for consumers, said Tuan Nguyen, an economist at RSM.
“We are living in a period of elevated uncertainties, and uncertainty is the number one enemy of consumer confidence,” said Nguyen.
Beyond this swirl of uncertainties that consumers can’t do much about, there’s also growing unease around job security.
“The labor market has been, it's seemingly doing this very long, prolonged, gradual kind of slow down,” said Kayla Bruun, lead economist at Morning Consult.
The labor market is by no means in a bad place. There aren’t widespread layoffs. But continuing jobless claims are near their highest in three years.
“Consumers are seeing some more softness in the job market,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank. “Fewer jobs available and a harder time finding a new job.”
He points out that younger job seekers are having an especially tough time. That’s leading to a drop in big-ticket spending.
Adams said consumers are showing less willingness to make big discretionary purchases in the near term. “We’ve seen some of that already in the May retail sales report, which was down on the month.”
There was one silver lining in the data: Inflation fears are easing slightly. Bruun at Morning Consult said consumers are less worried about rising prices.
“We have been getting cooler inflation readings and consumers do seem to be noticing that,” Bruun said.
However, the end of the 90-day pause on most tariffs could shift the mood again next month. And as always, timing matters. The Conference Board’s survey was conducted before June 18.
“So it’s not capturing the U.S.’s involvement in the Israel-Iran affair,” Bruun said.
As global tensions mount and the job market shows signs of strain, consumers are growing more cautious — Bruun said her group’s more recent surveys show consumer confidence has kept declining since then.