One noteworthy data point that stands out from the monthly jobs report last week was child care employment. It was up by 5,700 in November and has now recovered to within a hair — less than 3% below — of where it was before the pandemic hit. But those gains might be at risk. 

Nearly 400,000 teachers and caregivers, roughly a third of the total child care workforce, lost or left their jobs when the pandemic hit.

So, the fact that we’ve nearly caught back up would seem like something to celebrate. Not quite, said Julia Pollak at ZipRecruiter.

“The number of payroll employees fully recovered in June of last year,” she said. “Seventeen months later, employment in the child care industry still has not fully recovered.”

Supply simply hasn’t kept up with demand. “On ZipRecruiter, there are enormous numbers of vacancies for child care workers,” she said.

Those employers can’t compete with more lucrative industries, like health care and retail, that pay higher wages, she said.

“We’re constantly in a state of looking for people,” said Cynthia Randolph-Vaughn, who runs a daycare in Indianapolis.

The $24 billion in federal pandemic funding helped Randolph-Vaughn and other providers staff up and raise wages. But that money has run out.

“Really just kind of cut off cold-turkey,” Randolph-Vaughn said.

That means this moment of recovery is also one of peril, noted Brandy Jones Lawrence at the UC-Berkeley Center for the Study of Child Care Employment. 

“So yes, we are back to near-pre-pandemic normal. But we got there because we had a national federal infusion of dollars,” she said. “That has now dried up.”

Meanwhile, parents — especially moms — are back to work at record levels, and child care demand is through the roof.