Critics have called it unethical and pointed out that people might start fires to collect on bets. On the other hand, prediction markets can highlight risk and change behaviors in the real world.
Perpetual futures allow investors to bet long or short on an asset, often a cryptocurrency, without an end date. Until now, perpetual futures have only been available on offshore markets.
Prediction markets are regulated by the federal Commodities Futures Trading Commission, even in states that don’t allow gambling. That could spark a legal battle to define an industry with little oversight in fields from sports to national security.
Manipulation is a big problem in sports betting. Prediction markets could be even worse. So far, the industry has largely been making up the rules as it goes.
A major fight is brewing over whether the right to control prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket lies with the states or the federal government.
