Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors is in the news, but don’t forget that five of the twelve people voting on interest rates are Fed regional bank presidents. 

The most recent jobs report showed mediocre job creation in July.

Trump’s pick to head the Bureau of Labor Statistics has suggested pausing the report, a proposal that investors, companies, and policymakers would not be fond of. 

We can look to Hungary for an example of what happens when a central bank’s role becomes more political than economic.

Foreign investors would also pull their money out of the U.S.

But it would likely come with a side order of inflation.

If investors lose faith in the Fed, they may start demanding higher yields on long-term bonds. That could lead to an increase in the interest rate for mortgages, government debt and more.

“A lot of that information on what the Fed is going to do in September is already priced in” to current mortgage rates, said Zillow economist Kara Ng.

Inflation is taking a back seat as Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that a rate cut is coming.

The first time central bank officials set 2% as their inflation target was in 2012.