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Bond traders seem to be betting that rates may already be close to a level that keeps inflation down and the labor market strong.
Inflation has been stubbornly hanging around 2.8% for months. That’s above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Meanwhile, key areas of the labor market are showing signs of weakness.
If the Federal Reserve cuts rates next week as predicted, and Kevin Hassett becomes Fed Chair, where will rates be at this time next year?
They’re sounding the alarm about the importance of central bank independence.
Kai Ryssdal spoke with Daniel Tarullo, who served on the Federal Reserve Board for more than eight years, about growing dissent within the FOMC.
For some investors, they bet on a vehicle known as "Federal Funds futures" to hedge. For others, it's just that — a bet.
Start with the fact that most consumers don’t spent a whole lot on imported goods.
The move comes while official statistics on jobs, inflation, and consumer spending are stalled during the government shutdown.
While some regional Fed banks have hard data, many of those figures come from agencies that are closed during the shutdown.
The Fed has been shrinking its pile of securities and Treasurys, but it still needs them to keep the economy’s plumbing in order.
![Without robust government data, "as time goes by, the basis for [Fed] policy decision-making will become more shaky,” warned former Fed economist David Wilcox.](https://img.apmcdn.org/13704a7c56f0a9a2140c00f0b3a8cbd8e481ba80/widescreen/f84ec0-20251028-the-seal-of-the-us-federal-reserve-webp2000.webp)
