Consumer confidence ticked up in October. Is it just a blip?

Consumer confidence unexpectedly rose to its highest level since June, according to The Conference Board’s October reading. Is this a blip, or something more permanent? And will it affect holiday spending or the upcoming midterms?

Consumer confidence has been bouncing around since 2022, said Conference Board CEO Steve Odland. In September, for example, it hit a 12-year low.

“The bounce tends to be around how consumers are feeling about gas prices and food prices at that particular time when they complete the survey,” he said.

Average gas prices did dip a bit in October. Odland said consumer confidence is still on a general downward trend though — with a sharp generational divide. Gen Z and millennials are much more confident than Gen Xers and Boomers right now.

“You see your food bill skyrocketing, your gas bill skyrocketing — well your fixed income is not buying quite as much,” he said.

Consumer sentiment also breaks down along party lines. Confidence improved much more for Republicans. Ted Rossman with Money Management International said the October confidence increase could give Republican candidates a whiff of hope, but in general, he thinks the economy is more of a weakness for Republicans right now.

Consumers in this latest survey did say they’ll spend less on services and durable goods over the next six months. But they’ve been saying that for a while.

“People are still going to spend, but you’re going to see less product for your dollar spent,” said Chip Lupo at Wallethub.

He predicted holiday sales will increase this year. But mostly because consumers are paying higher prices, not because they’re getting more stuff.