The latest JOLTS survey shows more of the same low-hire, low-fire economy

There are optimistic words to describe hiring right now, like stable. And more pessimistic words, like stuck.

The number of people hired in August was up just a touch month-to-month, to 5.2 million, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The number of people who quit their jobs or were laid off remained pretty much the same.

Economist Leah Brooks at George Washington University described the labor market as somewhere in between. “I’d characterize it as ‘meh,’” she said.

The reason hiring isn’t budging, she said, is businesses are afraid to budge.

“I think if I'm a business, I want to hire somebody new if somebody leaves, or if I have the expectation of being able to sell more,” she said.

But people aren’t really leaving their jobs right now. And before businesses amp up to sell more, they want to be certain there will be demand.

“ I don't think there's a lot of certainty in the U.S. market right now,” Brooks said.

You can blame the usual suspects for that: tariffs, geopolitical uncertainty, whatever happens with artificial intelligence. Plus, there’s a new factor: The Fed just raised interest rates for the first time in three years.

ZipRecruiter labor economist Nicole Bachaud pointed out more hikes are expected.

“As we see these employers facing these higher rates … that makes it more difficult to borrow capital, to expand their business, and to hire more people,” she said.

All that is leaving job seekers in the lurch.

“Unemployment is becoming a lot more of a sticky issue in this market,” Bachaud said. “Meaning, if you find yourself unemployed, it might take six-plus months to find something.”

Another complicating factor is interest rates on government debt are pretty high right now. So investors might be more inclined to put their money into low-risk government bonds than lend it to a higher-risk new business, said GW’s Leah Brooks.

“It just sucks money out of the productive private investment part of the economy,” she said.

That means less money for businesses, that are then more likely to feel “meh” about hiring.