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Crude oil prices are down. Will consumers benefit?

Lower crude prices usually mean lower gas prices — but pressures on refineries, including drone attacks on Russian refineries, mean that consumers might not see as much benefit.

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Because of pressures on refiners, gas prices are roughly what they were a year ago.
Because of pressures on refiners, gas prices are roughly what they were a year ago.
Brandon Bell/Getty Images

The world’s crude oil market continues to move into glut territory. OPEC+ producers decided once again to expand output. Overall, weaker crude oil prices could mean some tougher months ahead for U.S. producers, but what about the rest of us?

Even though a barrel of oil today is about $10 less than it was a year ago, “consumers don't consume crude oil, they consume gasoline,” said Mark Finley, nonresident fellow in energy and global oil at Rice University's Baker Institute.

Lower crude prices do bring down gas prices (usually), but “the national average for retail regular gasoline is $3.13 a gallon,” he said.

That’s more or less the same as a year ago, Finley said, because of pressures on refiners.

Looking ahead, “gasoline prices will come off, but I don't think they're going to come off quite as aggressively,” said chief market analyst Tom Kloza with Turner, Mason & Company. “That's because of all of these drone impacts on Russian refiners that's knocking out Russian refining.”

Even if lower crude prices continue, “I don't think it's necessarily going to be this wonderful dividend of deflation or disinflation for the public,” he added.

Especially, he said, because diesel and jet fuel prices are still pretty pricey.

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