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Private jobs reports and other data indicate a low-hire, low-fire economy

But private data can’t replace the government’s report.

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The Chicago Fed has just come out with a new analysis of the labor market that pulls together nearly a dozen different sources of data in one place.
The Chicago Fed has just come out with a new analysis of the labor market that pulls together nearly a dozen different sources of data in one place.
Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Today should be “jobs day” — the day the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases data on the labor market from the previous month. Only, the BLS is not releasing its jobs report as usual because, like most of the federal government, it’s been closed by the shutdown. But we do know something about September’s labor market.

“We do have private data to look at, and that is meaningful,” said Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate.

He said it can’t replace government data, but reports from private companies, including payroll processing firm ADP and outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, do give us glimpses into the labor market.

“Those data points, I think, are very consistent with what we've been seeing otherwise, and that is, this is a low-hire, low-fire job market,” said Hamrick.

Seeing the latest private data has only made Angela Hanks, chief of policy programs at The Century Foundation, more curious about the government data.

“So for example, when I see that ADP is predicting that we're going to have lost 32,000 jobs in September, it's certainly cause for concern,” said Hanks. “But I think my curiosity is, what are we missing from that report, and what more do we need to know about the health of the labor market that's not captured here?”

The Chicago Fed has just come out with a new analysis of the labor market that pulls together nearly a dozen different sources of data in one place.

It’ll come out twice a month, and include federal data — unemployment claims and the jobs report (when available) — private data from companies including Indeed and Morning Consult, and Google search activity on unemployment.

Scott Brave, senior economist at the Chicago Fed, said for September, “we see a little bit less job finding going on, we see a little bit more job loss, but on balance, not a whole lot has changed.”

This includes the unemployment rate, which the Chicago Fed estimates is still around 4.3%.

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