Manufacturing in the U.S. has been in a slump since late 2022. Most months since then, the sector’s been contracting. But this past month, things seemed to turn around.

Things really were looking up this month for manufacturing, according to an early read of S&P’s Purchasing Managers’ Index, which is basically a survey of businesses. Both employment and production surged.

“This is the best performance that we’ve got in the U.S. since that pandemic growth spurt in 2022,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Now, a lot of this manufacturing bump has to do with tariffs — specifically, manufacturers trying to avoid them by stockpiling.

“Whether it’s cars or chemicals or plastics, all these industries are sucking in these imports while they’ve got them and building stuff,” Williamson said.

And here is where the outlook gets a little murkier, if not darker: On the one hand, some manufacturers say they expect more demand because the imports they compete with are getting more expensive. On the other hand, a lot of manufacturers are also importers, and imports are getting more expensive.

“We’re going to have an increase in input costs. Now, how that’s divided between the export or the importer, the buyer and the customer, is still way up in the air,” said Liam Burke, managing director at B Riley Securities.

There’s probably going to be, Burke says, a hit to profits for manufacturers.