How flush consumers feel financially at this point will help determine how good this holiday season is for retailers and the economy overall.

Recent data sheds some light on this: Average hourly earnings have increased 4% over the last year, whereas prices increased only 3.1%. While that means that folks are gaining purchasing power, that may not make consumers up and down the income ladder feel more financially secure.

Last year, as prices rose, so did wages — especially for low-income workers. Leisure and hospitality pay shot up by double digits.

But no longer. “At the bottom, we’re absolutely seeing those gains are stalling out,” said Tulane economist Gary Hoover.

That’s squeezing many families’ finances, per Robert Frick at Navy Federal Credit Union.

“Our lower-income members are really struggling, and the main reason for that is the rate of inflation has come down, but the weight of inflation keeps going up,” he said.

That “weight” is the cumulative effect of two years of sharp price hikes — for food and transportation and rent. Those costs “make up a huge percentage of lower-income people’s budgets,” said Frick.

And adjusting to higher prices is hard, said Gary Hoover. “Some folks are hoping that prices are going to start falling, to return to where they were before.”

Thing is, once prices go up, they rarely come down again.