On Tuesday, the National Federation of Independent Business released its Small Business Optimism Index, which inched down in November. It’s now been in negative territory — compared to the historical average — since the beginning of 2022.  

NFIB’s head of research, Holly Wade, sums up what’s bumming out small-business owners in four words: “Inflation and labor shortage.”

But here’s the thing: Inflation has been falling, and labor supply has been improving. Still, “they don’t see particularly anything to suggest those headwinds are easing up in a significant way,” said Wade.

As stressed as they are though, Wade said that small business owners aren’t super pessimistic about the future.

“Their sales expectations — that hasn’t deteriorated as you would expect if we were headed towards a recession,” she said.

The sector has been through a lot, said Frank Fiorille at payroll processor Paychex.

“These small businesses have been very resilient, hanging in there, and they’re doing a very good job of maneuvering,” he said.  

Plus, Fiorille added that they’re finally getting a bit of relief on wages, which are now growing at the slowest pace in more than two years.