Earnings season looking rough for commodities

Alcoa kicks off the earnings season with its its fourth quarter earnings report, expected after markets close Monday. Analysts are anticipating bad news for the aluminum producer, and the commodities market overall.

“In my opinion, commodities have not bottomed yet,” said Andrew Hecht, chief market strategist at Carden Capital. “The markets are suffering from a couple of things: big inventories, lower demand from China — which is very much the demand side of the equation for commodities — and a stronger dollar.

China is exporting its excess supply of products like aluminum because of lower demand at home. 

“As the main consumer of commodities and the main source of commodity growth over the past decade, the China slowdown has had a disproportionate impact,” said Craig Pirrong, a finance professor at the University of Houston. And he said markets can’t tell just how long that slowdown will last.

“China’s a tremendous source of uncertainty and volatility, and Alcoa’s going to be along for that ride,” said Pirrong.

The company is trying to hold on, closing plants and dividing its operations to respond to slowing global growth.